Re: noble energy
Email-ID 123320
Date 2011-09-16 04:42:33
From friedman@att.blackberry.net
To bhalla@stratfor.com
By all means talk to him. Itd be interesting to get his view. Turks are out of control.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
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From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2011 21:35:49 -0500 (CDT)
To: George Friedman
Subject: noble energy
As I'm sure you are aware, Noble energy is trying to drill in Greek Cyprus waters, and Turkey is raising hell over it. Basically, because they can since Greece is a mess right now anyway. The move to deploy frigates seems to be part of this.
I was just talking to David (the bf), whose best friend's dad is the head of Noble Energy. They were all having dinner in houston and the dad was talking about how the Turks are creating a nightmare for them with this whole warships thing. David was telling him about what I do, and how we do a lot of work with Turkey, and the dad wants to talk to me about this. Might turn into a business opportunity, you never know. But this family has houses all over the world, the dad speaks 10 languages, living in Cyprus right now, used to be in Quito and before that, Vietnam, has all kinds of crazy connections and crazy dealings with shady people. I might be able to learn some interesting things from him. And maybe we could help them understand what the Turks are actually going to do...
Background on the issue that Emre wrote up earlier-
This is more of a summary of the current situation and questions that arise from it. Please feel free to add your comments/questions before I tap sources.
Below is the area where American Noble Energy is supposed to start exploratory oil and natural gas drillings in early October according to the right granted by Greek Cyprus in 2008. (Attention: Leviathan and Tamar are Israeli wells, not Cyprus)
As far as energy matters are concerned, there is not much to say. Since no exploration took place yet, there is no estimation of reserves that would tells us how far Cyprus would be willing to push the deal. However, given the gigantic reserves found in Israeli offshore fields, ita**s very possible that the same would be the case for Cyprus. At least this is the hope of Greek Cyprus.
As you know, Turkish Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey, whereas Greek Cyprus is the official government of the entire island and a member of the EU, which is not recognized by Turkey. So, this is an issue of national sovereignty more than energy production, though Turkey does not want to lose energy reserves as well.
What has happened so far;
Greek Cyprus side:
- Greek Cyprus FM sought political support in Israel. They keep saying that Israel supports them, but I really doubt that Israel would get involved in this controversy for Greek Cyprus while it is having its a) own offshore reserves dispute with Lebanon b) troubles with Turkey.
- Greece is mostly quiet, for a good reason. Athens gives support to Cyprus, though only rhetorical. I also have not seen any important statement from the EU.
- Greek Cyprus says it will block energy chapter of Turkey/EU membership negotiations. Greek Cyprus has already blocked eight chapters anyway and membership talks are in coma. So, this threat does not mean anything for Turkey. Even if it did, EU members have their own individual energy dealings with Turkey.
- No statement from Noble Energy yet, neither from the US government.
Overall, Greek Cyprus has nothing that can stop Turkey.
Turkey side:
- Turkey says TPAO will start drillings there as well. I am not sure if TPAO is able to do that on its own. Fourth well in the Black Sea oil exploration project is operated by TPAO, but the platform is owned by Petrobras. (to be replaced by ExxonMobil). So, this does not look very credible to me.
- Most significant tool is, though, Turkeya**s decision to put military options on the table to be used in eastern Med, seemingly against Israel. Turkey never said it would use it against Cyprus, but if Turkey considers eastern Med as its turf that it is ready to defend militarily, there is not so much that Greek Cyprus can do to prevent it. This also increases risks for Noble Energy when it comes to investment decisions.
- Turkish MFA also said today that Turkey and Turkish Cyprus agreed to conclude a continental shelf delimitation agreement should the Greek Cypriot administration proceed with offshore drilling activities in the south of the island. Meaningless political/legal move.
Questions moving forward:
Noble Energy: What are the plans of Noble Energy? Are they planning to move on with the deal? If so, how and when? Is there Noble Energy's platform off Cyprus?
Turkey: Is Turkey floating the idea of using the military threat against Cyprus? Can TPAO drill in southern Cyprus?
Cyprus: What are the options of Greek Cyprus? What can they do to move on?
--
--
Emre Dogru
STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
Πηγή, (αντίστροφα): http://wikileaks.org/
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| Wikileaks 14029 |
Πηγή: http://wikileaks.org/
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| Haaretz.com 28/2/2012 02:00 |
Ο Yossi Melman τής «Haaretz» για Julian Assange και David Leigh. Στην «Haaretz»:
Ενιαίο κατά παράγραφο και αράδα και πιστό απόσπασμα από το άρθρο με τίτλο «Leaked e-mails: Israel, Kurds may have destroyed Iranian facilities». Το υπογράφουν οι Anshel Pfeffer και Ron Ben-Tovim Αναρτήθηκε, για πρώτη φορά, στην ηλεκτρονική έκδοση, της ισραηλινής εφημερίδας, «Haaretz», την 28η Φεβρουαρίου 2012 και ώρα 02:00
«WikiLeaks also mentions "private intelligence staff who align themselves closely with U.S. government policies and channel tips to the Mossad - including through an information mule in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Yossi Melman, who conspired with Guardian journalist David Leigh to secretly, and in violation of WikiLeaks' contract with the Guardian, move WikiLeaks' U.S. diplomatic cables to Israel."
Melman, who until recently covered intelligence affairs for Haaretz, said in response that, at the time, "I worked for Haaretz and with the approval of my editors obtained the WikiLeaks documents.
"Haaretz published some of them. I am proud of my journalistic achievements, which were praised by my editors and the readers. WikiLeaks' Julian Assange tried to prevent the publication, arguing that the documents belonged to him," he added, saying, "I and my editors rejected his claim and went ahead with the publication.
"Now [Assange] tries to take revenge on me by hinting that I was a channel to the Israeli intelligence community. This is a complete lie. He also, by way of innuendo, tries to create the impression that I was a source for Stratfor. This is another lie. I do not have any control whatsoever about what Stratfor personnel wrote about me in their private in-house correspondence," Melman added.»
Πηγή: http://www.haaretz.com/
Το εξώφυλλο του τεύχους 111, του περιοδικού «Επίκαιρα» το οποίο κυκλοφόρησε την 1η Δεκεμβρίου 2011:
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| «Επίκαιρα», Τεύχος 111, 1/12-7/12/2011 |
Τ α φερόμενα, από το Wikileaks, ως διαμοιβόμενα, μεταξύ στελεχών της Stratfor, μηνύματα, αναρτήθηκαν για πρώτη φορά στον Wikileaks, όχι πριν από την 27η Φεβρουαρίου 2012
Πηγή: http://www.epikaira.gr/
Το από 4ης Νοεμβρίου 2011 μήνυμα ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδρομείου που, σύμφωνα με το Wikleaks, διημείφθη μεταξύ στελεχών της Stratfor:
[alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - nat gas/oil producer; dollar bloc? - OCH007
Email-ID 170561
Date 2011-11-04 19:50:37
From marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
List-Name alpha@stratfor.com
SOURCE: OCH007
ATTRIBUTION: Old China Hand
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected financial source
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: I really can't judge this one. I know he is well connected in general but also speaks to some crackpots as well.
SPECIAL HANDLING: none
SOURCE HANDLER: Meredith/Jen
--
Jennifer Richmond
STRATFOR
w: 512-744-4324
c: 512-422-9335
richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
ATTRIBUTION: Old China Hand
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected financial source
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: I really can't judge this one. I know he is well connected in general but also speaks to some crackpots as well.
SPECIAL HANDLING: none
SOURCE HANDLER: Meredith/Jen
--
Jennifer Richmond
STRATFOR
w: 512-744-4324
c: 512-422-9335
richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
Attached Files
# Filename Size
14029 14029_msg-21776-22574.png 94.6KiB
14030 14030_msg-21776-22575.png 26.8KiB
Πηγή: http://wikileaks.org/
Το με αριθμό 14030, κατά την πηγή, συνημμένο, φωτογραφικού τύπου, (αρχείου), σημείωμα, στο δεύτερο, (4ης Νοεμβρίου 2011), μήνυμα στελέχους της Stratfor:
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| Wikileaks 14030 |
Πηγή: http://wikileaks.org/
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| greek.ruvr.ru 28/2/2012 17:19 |
Ο Βίκτορ Μπαρανέτς για το Wikileaks. Στην «Φωνή της Ρωσίας»:
Πιστό και ενιαίο κατά αράδα μα όχι και κατά παράγραφο απόσπασμα από το άρθρο με τίτλο: «Το Wikileaks δοκιμάζει ένα νέο ρόλο». Το υπογράφει ο Μπορίς Παβλίτσεφ. Αναρτήθηκε, για πρώτη φορά, στην ενημερωτική ιστοσελίδα, «Η Φωνή της Ρωσίας», την 28η Φεβρουαρίου 2012 και ώρα 17:19
«Η ιδιωτική κατασκοπευτική εταιρεία Stratfor αποκαλείται «σκιά της CIA», εκτιμώντας αντάξια το κύρος και την επιρροή που έχει.» (Σ. Σ.: Δεδομένου ότι την ίδια άποψη έχουν και άλλοι, όχι μόνο οι ρώσοι -αποδείξεις για τον συγκεκριμένο ισχυρισμό παρουσίασε κατά το παρελθόν μερίδα του Τύπου τόσο στις Η.Π.Α., όσο και στην Ευρώπη- αρκεί και μόνο μία ενδεικτική - αν όχι δειγματοληπτική αναφορά π.χ. από τον εγχώριο Τύπο.)
«- “Είμαι απολύτως πεπεισμένος ότι οι μυστικές υπηρεσίες των ΗΠΑ αρχίζουν να χρησιμοποιούν πλήρως την ιστοσελίδα Wikileaks. Ας σημειωθεί σε σχέση με αυτό ότι το Wikileaks δημοσίευσε ένα e-mail της Stratfor η γνησιότητα του οποίου δεν μπορεί να εξακριβωθεί. Αν υπήρχε το έντυπο έγγραφο, τότε στην ιστοσελίδα Wikileaks θα εμφανιζόταν το αντίγραφό του. Αλλά τέτοιο έγγραφο δεν υπάρχει, κάτι που δείχνει ότι όλα όσα έχουν δημοσιευθεί είναι ψέμα", - σημείωσε ο Βίκτορ Μπαρανέτς.”» (Διευκρινίζεται ότι ο Β. Μπαρανέτς μιλάει στον Μπ. Παβλίτσεφ με την ιδιότητα του ειδικού στρατιωτικού εμπειρογνώμονα, σύμφωνα με τον δεύτερο.)
Πηγή: http://greek.ruvr.ru/
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| The Shadow CIA |
2012 yahooxaxaxouxa.blogspot.com
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